Final Project

Jacob Brown
English 101: Political Rhetorics
Ms. Matthews
December 4, 2008

Sarah Palin Lost the Election

On November 4th, voters all over America cast their ballots and finally put an end to this historic election. Barack Obama was elected to be the next president of the United States with a commanding 365 to 173 electoral victory as well as 53% of the popular vote (RCP). As the Republicans reflect upon their defeat, they must consider which factors were most influential in causing their loss. The most obvious factor seems to be the economy, with 62% of Americans citing it as the most important issue in deciding their vote (Kuhn). But the McCain campaign spoiled its chances for victory nearly a month before Wall Street crashed. Even before the economic crisis took hold of the campaign, the selection of Sarah Palin as vice president lost the McCain campaign the election because she alienated key voter constituencies, brought into question McCain’s judgment, and undermined the campaign’s critiques of Barack Obama’s inexperience and his far-left political ideology.
The economic crisis did play an important role in the Democrats’ impressive margin of victory, but the selection of Sarah Palin was what first lost the McCain campaign the election. As previously stated, 62% of Americans said the economy was the most important issue in the campaign. Concern about their financial livelihood caused many voters to vote Democratic. Voters thought Obama could better handle the economic crisis than McCain, and this caused much of the huge disparity in the election results. But concern over the selection of Palin caused McCain’s numbers to begin to fall before the economic crisis was brought to center stage. When Palin was initially introduced on August 30th as the Republican nominee for vice president, her polling numbers were incredibly high, and it appeared that she was a boon for the McCain campaign. She provided the McCain campaign with a six-point convention bounce, which provided McCain with his first lead of the presidential campaign, by a margin of 49% to 44% (“Gallup Daily: McCain’s Bounce Gives Him 5-Point Lead”). But his numbers dropped by mid-September, as the public got a chance to examine Palin. By September 15th, the day before Wall Street plummeted, McCain’s lead had decreased to two percentage points, well within the margin of error (“Gallup Daily: Race Stabilizes with McCain up by Two”). Once the hype died down and voters were given time to evaluate Palin as a vice presidential candidate, it became clear just how unqualified she was and how dangerous her selection would prove for the Republican ticket. Once the voters came to these realizations, they were far less likely to vote for the Republican ticket. The damage that Palin caused to the McCain campaign was so great that she lost them the election before the economic crisis became the focal point of the campaign.
Sarah Palin dramatically damaged the Republican ticket by alienating key voting groups. Moderates were the first voters that she drove from the McCain campaign, because her far-right conservative views scared them. Palin holds views that many moderates do not share. She does not believe the Constitution offers an inherent right to privacy. She believes abortion should be illegal even if the mother was raped. Her views regarding education are even more frightening to many moderates. She does not believe in evolution, and she advocated for creationism to be taught in schools. Furthermore, when she was the mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, she probed the possibility of banning certain books from the city library (“Sarah Palin on the Issues”). These conservative stances greatly differ from those of moderate voters. Moderate voters hold centrist positions between the liberal and conservative ends of the political spectrum. They do not support views that are either too far left or right (Callimachus). In the past, McCain has been popular with moderates, and the McCain campaign tried to capitalize on this popularity and position itself as the ticket for moderates. However, Palin’s political views are much too far to the right to give any credibility to this argument. In fact, her views are so far from the center that moderates overwhelmingly did not support the Republican ticket. Exit polls reported that moderates favored Obama 60% to 39%. This support was so valuable because 44% of the electorate classified themselves as “moderate” (Selzer). They worried that Palin would push McCain away from the center. This concern dearly cost the McCain campaign on Election Day.
Besides scaring off moderates, Palin further hurt the chances of the Republican ticket by estranging women voters. Through the selection of Palin, the McCain campaign made a concerted effort to appeal to women voters. They specifically reached out to discontented Hillary Clinton supporters still angered by perceived sexism during the Democratic primaries. However, their efforts backfired. Obama won a strong majority of women voters in the election; 55% percent of women voters backed Obama versus just 43% for McCain. Also, exit polls show that 84% of Democrats who supported Hilary Clinton in the primaries voted for Obama in the general election (“Exit Polls: Age v. Race”). Her unpopularity with women is a result of her stances on crucial women’s rights issues. As mentioned before, Palin is adamantly pro-life, even in cases of rape or incest (“Sarah Palin on the Issues”). Many women disagree with her on this issue. A Gallup tracking poll released on September 3rd found that 50% of women are pro-choice and only 43% are pro-life. Among independent women voters, 51% claim to be pro-choice while just 40% say they are pro-life. Palin’s view on another important women’s issue, sex education, also puts her in conflict with the majority of women voters. Sixty-four percent of women say that “it is extremely or very important for Congress and the next administration to address policies that will help prevent unintended pregnancies by expanding access to contraceptives and comprehensive sex education” (“Poll: Women Pessimistic on Economy, Worried About Future”). Sarah Palin opposes any sex education besides teaching abstinence. She even cut federal funding for teenage mothers in Alaska (Kane). Palin’s views are out of the mainstream when it comes to issues important to women. Her disagreement with many women on these key issues persuaded many women against casting a Republican vote. This disagreement was especially damaging because women made up 53% of the electorate (Aleccia).
Although they are a less sizable voting group than women voters, Jewish voters are still an influential voting block. Palin’s conservative Christian views disaffected Jewish voters, further hurting the Republican ticket on Election Day. Jewish voters were especially important in the state of Florida. Florida was a key swing state in this election, and Jewish voters made up 5% of the voting population in the state (Liasson). As of October 23rd, Jewish voters favored Obama over McCain 74% to 22% (“Obama Winning Over the Jewish Vote”). These numbers increased dramatically since last August, largely in response to the McCain campaign’s selection of Palin. 57% of Jews disapproved of her selection, and Jewish voters began to move towards Obama around the time the McCain campaign announced Palin as their vice presidential nominee (Porter). On Election Day, 78% of Jewish voters voted for Obama and only 21% voted for McCain (Krieger). Obama initially had trouble wooing Jewish voters because they worried about his stance towards Israel. The McCain campaign played up this fear in an attempt to steal Jewish votes from the Obama campaign. However, the selection of Palin, who has no experience on Israel whatsoever, weakened this effort. Furthermore, Jews fret about her strong Christian values, and how they would play out in a McCain presidency. They do not want her Christian values affecting her policy decisions. These worries caused the vast majority of Jewish voters to vote for Obama, killing McCain’s chances in Florida and other key states.
Far more than her alienation of Jewish voters, the fact that Palin does not appeal to young voters hurt the Republican ticket the most. Young voters voted in greater numbers in this election than any previous one. Obama’s youth and idealistic message excited young voters across the country. In this election, 18% of all voters were below the age of 30. Youth turnout rose to 52% with 23 million young voters. 3.4 million more young people voted in this presidential election than in the 2004 presidential election. Moreover, the increase in young voters was responsible for 60% of the overall increase in voter turnout (“Youth Turnout Rate Rises to at Least 52%”). The McCain campaign hoped to lure young voters to the Republican ticket through the selection of Palin for vice president. She is 44 years old, making her the youngest figure in this presidential campaign. Despite her relative youth, she is unpopular with many young voters. A poll published by Harvard University on October 22nd reports that 40% of young voters were less likely to vote for McCain because of Palin. Only 25% of young voters said that the selection of Palin made them more likely to vote for McCain. Palin was unpopular with young voters for a number of reasons. First, young voters tend to be more liberal, and Palin is a staunch conservative. Also, many young voters saw the selection of Palin as a ploy to draw women voters to the Republican ticket, which makes them untrusting of the McCain campaign. They saw Palin as unqualified and unprepared to be vice president (“Most Young Voters Shocked by McCain’s Palin Pick”). On Election Day, 68% of young voters voted for Obama and only 30% voted for McCain (“Exit Polls: Obama Wins Big Among Young, Minorities”). As a record number of young voters went to the polls on Election Day, their disapproval of Palin swayed their votes and marred McCain’s chances.
Besides alienating numerous voting groups, Palin further cost McCain votes because she caused many Americans to question McCain’s judgment. Exit polls showed that 60% of voters believed Palin to unqualified for the position of vice president (Turley). Voters’ opinions of her were shaped through such public disasters as her interview on CBS with Katie Couric. During the interview, she unsuccessfully struggled to hide her lack of knowledge about foreign policy and other important issues. On one of the more often replayed clips from the interview, she responded to a question from Couric on what books and periodicals shaped her views with, “Oh, all of them” ("Interview With Katie Couric"). Her incompetence caused many to wonder how McCain could be so irresponsible as to pick her as his running mate. McCain would have been the oldest first term president ever, and - when one takes into account his considerable health problems - the possibility of him dying in office was realistic. It was therefore vital that he select a vice president who could capably assume the office of the president in the event of his death. Instead, he chose Palin, a choice that many voters on both sides of the political spectrum viewed as “reckless” (“Reckless Palin Choice Comes under Attack – This Time from Conservatives"). This perceived recklessness cast doubt over McCain’s overall judgment and made many voters uneasy about a McCain presidency, which in turn made them less likely to vote for the Republican ticket.

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These statistics illustrating Palin’s influence on the election are ample evidence of her negative impact on the McCain campaign. Her unpopularity with key voting groups cost the McCain necessary support. She also brought into question McCain’s judgment because she was viewed as unqualified to assume the presidency, should he die in office. But she also strategically damaged the McCain campaign because she undermined the Republicans’ most potent criticisms of Obama: his inexperience and his far-left ideology.
The former criticism especially dogged Obama from the beginning of his presidential run. For the entire Democratic primary season, critics hammered away at Obama’s inexperience. His primary rival, Hillary Clinton continually blasted him as “not ready to lead.” Even Joe Biden, Obama’s vice president, claimed Obama was too inexperienced to be president (“Obama Not Ready to Lead”). After he secured the Democratic nomination, he was attacked by an onslaught of Republican critics who decried his inexperience and idealistic naiveté. Compared to McCain, a war veteran with a long history in the United States Senate, Obama’s paltry legislative experience was almost embarrassing. The McCain campaign could have capitalized on this enormous experience gap, but the selection of Palin for vice president drained the force from this argument. Palin possessed arguably less political experience than Obama, and she did not make up for it – as he did – by displaying real political competence in debates, speeches, and interviews. Without their most powerful weapon, the McCain campaign was dreadfully weakened and had little ammunition left with which to attack Obama.
Another strong argument against Obama that seemed to gain some traction before Palin undermined it was criticism of his far-left ideology. In 2007, Obama possessed the most liberal voting record in the Senate (Friel, Cohen, and Victor). The Republican Party attempted to brand Obama as dangerously liberal in order to make voters afraid of electing him. This strategy might have been more effective if Palin’s own extreme views did not undercut it. Palin is extremely conservative and her far-right ideology made voters just as uneasy as Obama’s far-left ideology did. Palin deprived the McCain campaign of another potentially effective line of attack, and they were left with fewer and weaker credible angles with which to assail Obama’s candidacy. This lack of strategic options left McCain with an incredibly difficult path to victory and tremendously hurt his chances.
No matter what one’s opinion of her, Sarah Palin was a monstrous force in this momentous election. She initially provided the McCain campaign with a boost in he polls and appeared to be a politically brilliant choice for vice president. However, she ultimately cost John McCain the election because she lost him the votes of several essential voting groups, caused people to question his judgment in selecting her, and glaringly undermined the Republicans most effective criticisms of Barack Obama. Yes, the economic crisis took the election out of the candidates’ hands, resulting in a massive victory for Obama. But at that point the election was already lost for the Republicans. The selection of Palin ruined their chances. Ironically, Palin’s future may still be bright. Depending on whom one asks, she is either the future of the Republican Party or merely an embarrassing footnote in presidential campaign politics. She is quite popular with the conservative Republican base and there is a real possibility that they might nominate her to challenge Obama in 2012. It is too far ahead to predict for certain, but Palin is certainly a key person to watch on the political scene over the next four years.